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State of the Industry 2018: A Discussion with Dr. Peter Linneman

A conversation between Terry Montesi, CEO of Trademark Property Company, and Dr. Peter Linneman, Principal of Linneman Associates and Chief Economist of NAI Global.

December 2018

Trademark CEO Terry Montesi recently interviewed Dr. Peter Linneman, Principal of Linneman Associates and Chief Economist of NAI Global to discuss the state of retail and mixed-use real estate. This year’s discussion focuses on the opportunities and risks of retail development, multi-family development, and how changing demographics today will impact those markets, as well as the economy.

Terry: Considering more recent news, any impact of the election on what we do, on the economy and how it will affect what we do? Or do you think it was a non-event?

Peter: From the economy point-of-view, it was a kind of a non-event. If the Democrats had taken everything, I’d have a different view. They would have tried to reverse taxes which would have then started a veto game and all of the uncertainty of that. Basically, what just started was a two-year election cycle. Both parties can clearly claim victory, but also can clearly claim defeat. I think what is going to happen in the next two years is what happened under the Bush and Obama administrations, after they lost control of Congress. When they couldn’t get things passed, they signed executive orders.

I don’t see anything different for the economy, the Fed is going to raise another 50 basis points in the next four or five months. So far, we’ve been pretty accurate. If you remember when we first started talking, there were two points I made:

1) That the short rate would rise, and you wouldn’t get a negative yield curve because…

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